撲克玩家的地獄 ? AI強勢來襲 !

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人工智慧當道,已成為市場顯學。舉凡任何與網路相關的產業,無不積極投入與開發AI的技術,其中博奕
遊戲產業也深受影響。匹茲堡超級計算中心的研究團隊以AI與四位世界級職業撲克選手展開人腦與電腦的
對決,並在競賽中赢得了170萬美元!本文為您詳細解析,A是如何擊敗四位世界頂尖撲克選手!
slavina Trocco hands of heads-ub. no-lim
“That was anticlimactic,” Jason Les said with a smirk, getting up from his seat. Unlike nearly everyone else in
Pittsburgh’s Rivers Casino, Les had just played his last few hands against an artificially intelligent opponent on
a computer screen. After his fellow players – Daniel McAulay next to him and Jimmy Chou and Dong Kim in an
office upstairs — eventually did the same, they started to commiserate. The consensus: That AI was one hell of a
player.
The four of them had spent the last 20 days playing 120,000 hands of heads-up, no-limit Texas Hold’em
against an artificial intelligence called Libratus created by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University. At stake: a
total pot of $200,000 and, on some level, the pride of the human race. A similar scene had unfolded two years
prior when Les, Kim and two other players decisively laid the smackdown on another Al called Claudico. The
players hoped to put on a repeat performance, finish up the event January 30th, and ride the rush of
endorphins until they got home and resumed their usual games of online poker.
The fight wasn’t even close. All told, Libratus won by more than 1.7 million (virtual) dollars, and — just like that
— the second Brains vs. Al competition came to a close. To understand what these players were up against and
what makes Libratus work, let’s go back to a time before all hope of victory was lost.
Men vs. machine
For the four men playing against Libratus, victory didn’t always seem impossible. The AI was in the lead from
the get-go, building an impressive streak of wins for the first three days. Then came the counter-attack. Day
four saw the gap narrow $40,000, and a string of successes on day six brought the humans to within $50,000 of
the lead.
“In the start here, we lost the first day,” Les explained. “Whatever — not a big deal. And then we were losing,
but then we fought back up to nearly equal. We were feeling really confident! We know how to play, we’re
going to be able to win.”
On the night after the sixth day of competition, the humans did what they did every other night: sift through
the Libratus hand data provided to them by CMU in hopes of devising a winning strategy. With spirits high after
a big day, they decided on a seemingly crazy strategy: three-betting on every hand that came along.
Three-betting, for the uninitiated, is poker slang for reraising on a hand. When you decide to play a hand in a
situation like this, paying the blinds is the first bet. If you’re confident in your cards, you raise — that’s the
second bet. Generally, when you reraise — the third bet-you’re pretty sure you’ve got the exchange in the
bag. Based on their understanding of Libratus’ play style, the humans thought they could knock if off balance
by playing this aggressively for a while. It backfired.
“We applied this crazy strategy we would never do online,” Kim explained. “Basically, we reraised all of our
hands. All of us went in, like, ‘Let’ s just try this, let’ s go crazy.”
“We had a reason to believe that specific size-three-bet was going to work well against the AI,” Les added.
“We just fired off all day doing that.”
Les and Kim concede that they just got unlucky, too, but either way: Libratus was unfazed by their plan and
started demolishing them. “It just kept improving every single day, and we started going backwards and
backwards,” Les said. In fairness, the humans weren’t playing with their usual setups. The four competitors
are almost exclusively online poker pros, and when duking it out at virtual tables at home, they always have
their HUDs handy. These heads-up displays are filled with stats and probabilities that help online players make
the best moves. Their absence here in Pittsburgh was noticeable.
“Without the HUD, without the numbers, you don’t know if you’re being paranoid or not,” Daniel McAulay
said, leaning back in his chair after winning a hand. “Is it folding less? We were never sure. We would always
say the same thing to each other. Just play it out until we get home and we’d see the sample of hands and
then we’ll change the plan. But that cost us a lot of money. A lot of money.”
Those losses would only continue to mount.
Building the beast
One of the men responsible for the players’ anguish can usually be found in his ninth-floor office, overlooking
Carnegie Mellon University’s snow-flecked quad. Professor Tuomas Sandholm might live a second life as a
startup entrepreneur, but he has spent years trying to perfect the algorithms that make Libratus such a potent
player. It wasn’t out of any particular love for the game — Sandholm admits he’s no poker pro — but he was
fascinated by the thought of complex computer systems that make decisions better than we can. That fixation
led him to co-create Claudico (the earlier AI that the humans trounced) with PHD student Noam Brown, and it
led the two of them to try again with Libratus.
To think of Libratus as just a poker-playing champ is to sorely underestimate it. Instead, Sandholm says, it’ sa
more general set of algorithms meant to tackle any information-imperfect situation. Confused? Don’t be.
Broadly speaking, the term just describes any situation in which two or more parties don’t have the same
information. Something unlike, say, chess, where the entirety of the game’ s world is splayed out on the board
in front of players. Those players can figure out exactly what’s going on and, assuming they have decent
memories, draw on their understanding of the events that led them there. This is a perfect information game.
No-limit Texas Hold’em is different. You don’t know which cards your opponent has, your opponent
doesn’t know which cards you have, and those minutes playing a hand to its conclusion are spent trying to
make the smartest moves possible with a shortage of intel. And unlike the limit variant, where there’s a cap on
how big your bets can be, no-limit gives you the freedom to bet whatever you want. There’s so much
information a person — or an AI — can infer about an opponent’ s strategy based on their bets that it sno
wonder researchers have been trying to crack the game.
“Heads-up, no-limit Texas Hold’ em poker has emerged as the leading benchmark for measuring the quality
of these general purpose algorithms in the AI community,” Sandholm told me.
With that in mind, Sandholm and Brown jointly built Libratus from three major components. The first is an
algorithm that devises overall strategies based on Nash equilibria. In other words, Libratus spent a total of 15
million computing hours chewing on the rules of the game before the competition, finding rational ways to act
when both players are making the best possible moves with the information available. Thanks to a new logic
model developed by the two researchers to minimize Libratus’ “regret,” the AI could solve larger
abstractions of the game faster and with higher accuracy than before.
The second is what Sandholm calls the end-game solver. This is the part that players actually faced during their
20 days of combat. Unsurprisingly, too, this is where Sandholm says most innovative breakthroughs have
happened. Essentially, this allowed Libratus to cook up an approach based on the first two cards it was dealt,
and modify that approach based on its opponent’ s actions and the river and flop that are dealt. Sandholm
says Libratus was also designed to keep tabs on how safe its options are. Let’s say a human player screws up
and loses $372. That money is viewed as a gift of sorts, so the AI can freely lose up to $372 and still remain
ahead.
ULTTE Garming
“That gives us more flexibility for optimizing our strategies while still being safe,” Sandholm explained.
We’ II get to the last key component a little later. In any case, the sheer number of complex calculations meant
Libratus couldn’t run on the desktop in Sandholm’ s office. If nothing else, the human players can take solace
in the fact that it took a supercomputer and millions of computing hours to beat them. If you thought Gowas
tough to wrap your head around, consider the complexity of no-limit Texas Hold’em: When you’re dealt into
a game, the hands you’re dealt and the communal cards that appear are one possibility of 10^160.
“That’s one followed by 160 zeroes,” said Sandholm. “That’s more than the number of atoms in the
universe. You cannot just brute-force your way through it.” Still, it takes some degree of brute force to build as
close to optimal a strategy as possible. That’s where “Bridges” comes in.
If Libratus is the brain of the operation, Bridges — a supercomputer made of hundreds of nodes in the
basement of the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center – is most definitely the brawn.
“Libratus is running on about 600 nodes at Bridges, out of 846 total compute nodes,” said Nick Nystrom,
senior director of research at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center. Most of those 800+ nodes have two
CPUs, each with 28 computing cores and 128GB of RAM. Forty-eight of those nodes have two state-of-the-art
GPUs, and still others were loaded with even more power: NVIDIA’ s Tesla-series K80 and P100 GPUs.
༧.༠༠
There’s more: 42 of those nodes have 3TB of RAM each, and a very special four nodes have a whopping 12TB
of RAM. That’s some serious firepower, but all those nodes were ingeniously woven together to maximize
data bandwidth and minimize latency. It’s just as well, considering the amount of data involved: Libratus was
using up to 2.6 petabytes of storage during the competition.
When not being used to best humans at card games, Bridges was being used for around 650 projects by more
than 2,500 people. Think of Bridges as a supercomputer for hire: Researchers from around the country are using
it to gain insight into arcane subjects like genomics, genome sequence assemblies and other kinds of machine-
learning.
The beauty of Bridges, according to Nystrom, is that those researchers don’t need to be supercomputer buffs.
“It’ sa very cloud-like model letting people who are not programmers, not computer scientists, not
supercomputer users make use of a supercomputer without necessarily even knowing it.” That’ s what
happened with Libratus, and everything seemed to be working perfectly.
ULTS 2 Garmin
GATING
Game theory
After the humans’ gutsy attack plan failed, Libratus spent the rest of the competition inflating its virtual
winnings. When the game lurched into its third week, the AI was up by a cool $750,000. Victory was assured, but
the humans were feeling worn out. When I chatted with Kim and Les in their hotel bar after the penultimate
day’s play, the mood was understandably somber.
“Yesterday, I think, I played really bad,” Kim said, rubbing his eyes. “I was pretty upset, and I made a lot of
big mistakes. I was pretty frustrated. Today, I cut that deficit in half, but it’s still probably unlike for me to
win.” At this point, with so little time left and such a large gap to close, their plan was to blitz through the
remaining hands and complete the task in front of them.
For these world-class players, beating Libratus had gone from being a real possibility to a pipe dream in just a
matter of days. It was obvious that the AI was getting better at the game over time, sometimes by leaps and
bounds that left Les, Kim, McAulay and Chou flummoxed. It wasn’t long before the pet theories began to
surface. Some thought Libratus might have been playing completely differently against each of them, and
others suspected the AI was adapting to their play styles while they were playing. They were wrong.
As it turned out, they weren’t the only ones looking back at the past day’ s events to concoct a game plan for
the days to come. Every night, after the players had retreated to their hotel rooms to strategize, the basement
of the Supercomputing Center continued to thrum. Libratus was busy. Many of us watching the events unfold
assumed the AI was spending its compute cycles figuring out ways to counter the players’ individual play
styles and fight back, but Professor Sandholm was quick to rebut that idea. Libratus isn’t designed to find
better ways to attack its opponents; it’ s designed to constantly fortify its defenses. Remember those major
Libratus components I mentioned? This is the last, and perhaps most important, one.
“All the time in the background, the algorithm looks at what holes the opponents have found in our strategy
and how often they have played those,” Sandholm told me. “It will prioritize the holes and then compute
better strategies for those parts, and we have a way of automatically gluing those fixes into the base strategy.”
If the humans leaned on a particular strategy — like their constant three-bets — Libratus could theoretically
take some big losses. The reason those attacks never ended in sustained victory is because Libratus was quietly
patching those holes by using the supercomputer in the background. The Great Wall of Libratus was only one
reason the AI managed to pull so far ahead. Sandholm refers to Libratus as a “balanced” player that uses
randomized actions to remain inscrutable to human competitors. More interesting, though, is how good
Libratus was at finding rare edge cases in which seemingly bad moves were actually excellent ones.
“It plays these weird bet sizes that are typically considered really bad moves,” Sandholm explained. These
include tiny underbets, like 10 percent of the pot, or huge overbets, like 20 times the pot. Donk betting, limping
— all sorts of strategies that are, according to the poker books and folk wisdom, bad strategies.” To the
players’ shock and dismay, those “bad strategies” worked all too well.
Poker and beyond
On the afternoon of January 30th, Libratus officially won the second Brains vs AI competition. The final margin
of victory: $1,766,250. Each of the players divvied up their $200,000 spoils (Dong kim lost the least amount of
money to Libratus, earning about $75,000 for his efforts), fielded questions from reporters and eventually left to
decompress. Not much had gone their way over the past 20 days, but they just might have contributed to a
more thoughtful, Al-driven future without even realizing it.
Through Libratus, Sandholm had proved algorithms could make better, more-nuanced decisions than humans
in one specific realm. But remember: Libratus and systems like it are general-purpose intelligences, and
Sandholm sees plenty of potential applications. As an entrepreneur and negotiation buff, he’ s enthusiastic
about algorithms like Libratus being used for bargaining and auctions.
“When the FCC auctions spectrum licenses, they sell tens of billions of dollars of spectrum per auction, yet
nobody knows even one rational way of bidding,” he said. “Wouldn’t it be nice if you had some AI
support?”
But there are bigger problems to tackle – ones that could affect all of us more directly. Sandholm pointed to
developments in cybersecurity, military settings and finance. And, of course, there’s medicine.
“In a new project, we’re steering evolution and biological adaptation to battle viral and bacterial infections,”
he said. “Think of the infection as the opponent and you’re taking sequential actions and measurements just
like in a game.” Sandholm also pointed out that such algorithms could even be used to more helpfully
manage diseases like cancer, both by optimizing the use of existing treatment methods and maybe even
developing new ones.
Jason, Dong, Daniel and Jimmy might have lost this prolonged poker showdown, but what Sandholm, Brown
and their contemporaries have learned in the process could lead to some big wins for humanity.

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